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THE LAND USE AND CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON LAKE USMA HYDROLOGICAL REGIME

Anda Bakute, Inga Grīnfelde, Jovita Pilecka-Uļčugačeva, Sindija Liepa, Kristaps Siltumens

Abstract

Changing climate variability and the type of land use are the main factors influencing the hydrological regime. The hydrological regime of the lake has a direct impact on biodiversity and has an impact on socio-economic processes in areas adjacent to the lake. The aim of the study is to predict and assess the impact of climate change and the change in the type of land use on the hydrological regime of Lake Usma. Two linear land-use change scenarios were used for modelling. Twelve climate scenarios were used to model climate variability. The modelling was carried out in two stages. First, METQ modelled the flows for sub-basins, each describing the type of land use using the conceptual hydrological model. The next step used land-use change scenarios to predict the flow rate for the period 2070-2100. The average, maximum and minimum flow-rate data rows for each scenario year were analysed to assess the expected changes in Lake Usma hydrological regime. The modelled average flow rates tend to grow in 7 out of 12 climate scenarios regardless of land use. The modelled maximum flow rates tend to rise in 10 out of 12 climate scenarios, regardless of land use. The modelled minimum flow rates have only 3 out of 12 climate scenarios, regardless of land use.

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DOI resolver: doi.org/10.5593/sgem2021v/3.2/s12.24

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