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USING THE ETAS MODEL FOR EARTHQUAKE CATALOG DECLUSTERING OF VRANCEA SEISMOGENIC CRUSTAL AREA
Abstract
The purpose of this work consists in analyses of declustering catalogue and seismic sequence recorded in Vrancea crustal area . The moderate-size earthquake with local magnitude 5,7 which occurred on November 22, 2014 in Vrancea region, at 41 km depth, is the largest crustal event instrumentally recorded at the bending of the Eastern Carpathians. The crust seismicity in front of the Carpathian Arc spreads to the East, in a strip delimited by the Peceneaga-Camena fault, to the North and East, and to the South is lost to the Intramoesica fault. The crust seismicity does not exceed the magnitude of 5.6 (Mw) and it seems to have no relation to the seismic activity of the subduction lithosphere. Seismic activity is characterized by spatial and temporal clustering in the Ramnicu Sarat sub-zones through seismic sequences and swarms in the Vrancioaia area. Using the first version of the software SEDA v.1 [1] we determined the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) ETAS model on an Vrancea area. The algorithm implemented in SEDAv1.0 is an innovative method based on Simulated Annealing. The Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequences (ETAS) model is the most popular stochastic model used to describe earthquake occurrence, to forecast earthquakes and to detect fluid/magma signals or induced seismicity.
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