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ASSESSMENT OF THE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE-FREE OPERATION OF THE DRILLING RIG TOP DRIVE SYSTEM GEARBOX BY NONPARAMETRIC STATISTICS METHODS
Abstract
Drilling equipment is subjected to accidental loads with fairly high amplitudes in the process of operation. Classical methods of probabilistic calculation of machine parts do not allow estimating their elements failure probability, taking into account the real operational data obtained by means of telemetry, in the case where these data cannot be described by standard distribution laws. The proposed technique is based on the use of nonparametric statistics methods, resulting in freedom from these limitations. All its stages are implemented in the MathCad mathematical processor. The article describes a method of assessing failure probability of the drilling rig top drive system gear drive by the criterion of teeth bending endurance. The results of its implementation for two conditions of gear loading - mean normal and heavy ? are given. Based on the telemetry data, it was concluded that the random loading condition of the studied gear is heavy. The results of the gear failure probability calculation are in accordance with the failure statistics, which confirms the reliability of the proposed technique. Also, the technique allows determining gear failure probability for any laws of load distribution, acting on the drive during its operation, including those specified by the sample.
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References15
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