Scholarly record

THE ASSESSMENT OF AN IMPACT OF MEAN SEA LEVEL CHANGE IN THE MID-ADRIATIC REGION BASED ON SATELLITE ALTIMETER RECORDS

Marijan Grgic, Senka Jukic, Robert Steven Nerem, Tomislav Basic

Abstract

A rise of a mean global sea level recorded during the 20th and 21st century is one of the most important indicators of climate change, which induces the thermal expansion of the oceans (steric effect) and ice melting. The mean rates of global sea level rise are estimated at around 3.1 mm a year. Those rates are routinely calculated from tide gauge measurements and satellite altimetry. However, regional rates that are driven by local geophysical processes can vary significantly. Thus, the impact of sea level change on the areas that adjoin the oceans and sea water areas should be evaluated through the local perspective. This study aims at computing the sea level trend estimates at the specific area of the eastern coast of Mid-Adriatic Sea region, and modeling and analyzing of an impact of the mean sea level change in the same area. The area of interest that is known for the economic and natural significance encompasses both mainland of Republic of Croatia with a waterway of the river Krka and the islands whose number exceeds one hundred. The sea level trends within the research were estimated from CryoSat-2 satellite altimeter records that are available from 2010 till present. To enable the study of a sea level rise impact, the trends computed were projected throughout the 21st century and, after that, compared against the vertical representation of the coast defined by the Shuttle Radar Terrain Model (SRTM). The study detects and presents the coastal areas of the study area that are less prone to the sea level change and consequently are expected to lose remarkable area during this century.

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