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ESTIMATION OF CLIMATIC BACKGROUND AND ITS REGIONAL PARAMETERS
Abstract
The current global climate variability is leading to significant changes in meteorological and oceanographic elements. A climatic background is formed, under the direct influence of which the reservoir affects the climate. The aim of the study is to create a method that can assess the combined impact of the main climate elements for a specific time interval and region. The following parameters of hydro- and meteorological elements are selected as the characteristics of such background: arithmetic mean and corresponding its mathematical expectation, extreme values, total growth, with corresponding trends, the sign of which shows the tendency of element development. The polynomial equation of climatic elements variation is obtained as the most important characteristic of the background. The study is based on the determine the variation parameters of the main meteorological elements of climatic background, using the method of mathematical statistics, which is possible in theoretical and empirical ways. An empirical direction is given preference if the results of the monitoring provide a real opportunity to create "long rows" of observations of meteorological and oceanographic elements. Climate events of monitoring, registered in the eastern region of the Black Sea are used to demonstrate the method. In the climatic background of the last 30 years, compared to the background of the previous interval, the warming of air and sea water, the intense rise in sea level and the decrease in atmospheric precipitation on the verge of breeze circulation are clearly visible. Climatic background is a combined effect of spatial-temporal dynamics of hydro- and meteorological elements, generalized with A-probability for a specific temporal interval and area. Using of this concept and method will significantly simplify the assessment of the reservoirs' role in modern climate changes.
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