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THE EFFECTS OF HUMAN BEHAVIOR ON FRESH WATER RESOURCES

N.I. Didenko, D.F. Skripnuk, O.V. Mirolyubova

Abstract

Almost 97 percent of water on the planet is seawater, 2.31 percent is frozen in glaciers; 0.66 percent is ground water, and only 0.03 percent of water is included in the hydrological cycle on the surface of the earth. The paper analyzes what factors of human behavior lead to a change in freshwater resources on the planet. The aim is to create a model which will show us the relations between the changes in fresh water reserves and human behavior. An ADL-model (autoregressive distributed lags model) was chosen as a theoretical model, where the current time series depend both on the previous time series and previous values of different time series. Eight different variables were chosen as exogenous variables, which characterize the impact on the change in freshwater resources on the planet: reduced forest area (sq.km); annual freshwater withdrawals (% of internal resources); agricultural materials and live animals wholesale: retail and wholesale (USD million); farm animal feeds: production (turnover) MSP (USD million); hydrological disasters (USD million); total population supplied by water supply industry (%);renewable freshwater resources (million cubic meters); net freshwater supplied by water supply industry (million cubic meters). Primary statistical data on endogenous and exogenous variables was gathered from different countries for period between 1998 and 2015. Endogenous and exogenous parameters for the global economy are based on primary statistical data which was determined as countriesпїЅ compound ratio indexes in year t. This paper uses empirical methods to verify the model. They include the following stages: verifying time row variables on their stationary, using the Dickey пїЅ Fuller test; choosing a lag endogenous variable, which has a strong correlation with the value of variables in final period; verifying the connection of endogenous variable with the exogenous variable, verifying exogenous variables multicollinearity; verifying autocorrelation coefficients with Ljung-Box Q-test; verifying dual correlation coefficients using Student's-test; determining coefficients of models using the regression analysis; verifying the regression equation and regression equation coefficients. The paper includes arguments about the factors which characterize the impact on the change in freshwater resources on the planet and the future scientific research course.

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DOI resolver: doi.org/10.5593/sgem2017/53/s21.110

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