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A COMBINED HYDROLOGICAL AND HYDRAULIC MODEL FOR FLOOD APPLIED TO THE DOWNSTREAM KAMCHIA RIVER
Abstract
Future climate scenarios of the Global Circulation model (GCM) show an increased frequency of heavy rainfall events, which may lead to more severe floods. It is also expected that more and more areas will suffer due to flooding as a result of growing urbanization. Public attention has increased in many parts of the world in recent years and calls have been made to improve flood warnings, including the United States, the European Union and Australia (Hapuarachchi, H.A.P, and Q.J. Wang 2008). To respond and manage flood hazard there is a need to provide a high spatial resolution flood forecast and with sufficient lead time. This study presents an approach for creation of a forecast model based on the analysis of historical hydrometeorological data from conventional and automatic monitoring networks of the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences in Bulgaria. The study area is the downstream Kamchia river watershed. Real-time water level observations and calculated discharges based on temporary rating curves are used to dynamically adjust the runoff forecasting. In this paper an approach for combining a hydrological model (TOPKAPI) and a twodimensional hydraulic model (HEC-RAS) for flood simulation is presented. Hydrological modelling is used for forecasting the outflow at a hydrometric station (43800) on Kamchia River near the village of Grozdyovo. The 2D hydraulic HEC-RAS model is used for simulating rainfall - runoff process in Kamchia watershed downstream of the village of Grozdyovo and the results from the hydrological modeling are used as an input data. In this paper the results of using operational hydrological data and forecast precipitation totals for flood simulation is presented.
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References4
TOPKAPI (TOPographic Kinematic APproximation and Integration), Model References, 2015
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http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/nr/documents/HWSD/HWSD_Documentation.pdf
Ruben A. Garcia-Gaines and Susan Frankenstein, March 2015, USCS and the USDA Soil Classification System, http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a614144.pdf
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