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CLIMATOLOGICAL ASSESSMENT OF EXTREME 24-HOUR PRECIPITATION IN BULGARIA DURING THE PERIOD 1931-2019
Abstract
The object of this study is the variability and trends of extreme 24-hour precipitation in Bulgaria during the period 1931?2019. The regime of potentially dangerous precipitation (? 60 mm/24 h) has been analyzed on the base of available daily data from all stations of the national meteorological network with continuous observations at least in half of the study period. We focused our attention on this type of precipitation because it often causes significant economic damage and human casualties. The advanced tools, embedded in ArcGIS Pro 2.4, have been used to investigate the intra-annual and spatial distribution of extreme precipitation. Also, the number of cases and the number of days with extreme precipitation have been summarized for the regions with different precipitation regimes and compared for three sub-periods (1931-1960; 1961-1990; 1991-2019). In the regions with temperate-continental and transitional-continental climate, which comprise almost 70% of the territory of Bulgaria, the number of days with extreme precipitation remains almost unchanged in the first two periods while in the last period (1991-2019) it increases by 19-42%. The most considerable change in the number of these events is observed in the regions with transitional-Mediterranean climate and maritime climate (near the Black Sea). In the south-central and eastern parts of the country, the number of days with heavy precipitation is twice more in recent years in comparison with the period 1931-1960, and with 32% higher than those in the period 1961-1990. In contrast, in south-western Bulgaria, which is also strongly influenced by the Mediterranean air masses, these events have even decreased in recent years ? with about 25% compared to 1961-1990.
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