Scholarly record

RISK MANAGEMENT METHOD IN PARAMETRIC GEOSYSTEMS

Eugene Istomin

Abstract

Modern socio-economic systems, as objects of management, are complex spatially distributed systems and territories, which indicates the need to develop and apply geo-information management. Natural, man-made and social processes of territory development unfold in time and in space and are characterized by a variety of parameters described by a random vector. The components of the natural and climatic potential are random non-stationary processes, the study of which leads to the necessity of forming, according to the results of measurements, multi-factor models. Representation of the territory in the form of a multi-factor and multi-parameter model allows to study the patterns of behavior of the system, taking into account the complex influence of the main factors and parameters on the management of the system. In the article, we consider risk as an object of management and revealing the ratio of real losses (relative damages) and possible losses (risks) we find optimal management strategies. Territory management by the criterion of minimizing real and possible losses (risks) is an explicit or implicit time function specified in the form of a certain control algorithm. The used algorithms may be different, but they are represented by the functional dependence on the input effects and the initial state of the system. This method, based on the use of multi-parameter models, allows management taking into account the forecast of possible losses (risks) in time, which significantly improves the quality of management for social and economic systems.

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