Scholarly record
A SIMPLIFIED MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR ESTIMATING THE ANTHROPOGENIC LOAD ON FOREST AREAS IN THE CONTEXT OF FOREST FIRES
Abstract
Forest fires occur for natural and anthropogenic reasons. In the vicinity of settlements, forest fires occur mainly as a result of human activity. The occurrence of a forest fire is characterized by the presence of a person in a forested area (anthropogenic load), the presence of ignition sources and the process of forest fuel ignition. It is important to understand how the anthropogenic load is distributed around the locality and to simulate it using computer technology. The purpose of the work is a numerical study of anthropogenic load around the settlement using a simplified mathematical model. Previously developed mathematical model allows simulating the space-time dynamics of anthropogenic load. In the framework of this work, a simplified mathematical model is proposed for the spatial description of anthropogenic load. Mathematically, this process is described using an ordinary differential equation with appropriate initial conditions. The scenario of homogeneous distribution of anthropogenic load around the settlement is considered. Scenarios and results of mathematical modeling of anthropogenic load for a point source are presented. The results obtained can be applied in the development of a new generation of specialized geo-information systems for forest fire danger prediction caused by anthropogenic load.
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