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AN EMPIRICAL MODEL FOR FORECASTING THE CRITICAL FREQUENCY OF THE IONOSPHERIC E-REGION OVER BULGARIA
Abstract
This work presents an empirical model for forecasting the hourly values of the ionospheric E-region critical frequency (foE) over Bulgaria in dependence of both: the index of the solar activity described by F10.7 and the cosine of solar zenith angle. The dependence of foE on solar activity and solar zenith angle is studied by correlation and regression analysis. The obtained relationships are used as a base for the synthesis of the model. The model is produced by using the hourly values of foE obtained in the ionospheric station Sofia. It allows predicting the respective foE values in the absence of fresh data from the vertical sounding of the ionosphere. The average error of the model turns out to be practically zero and RMSE is 0.166 MHz. For practical purposes, as for calculating a radio path at a given radio distance, this error is within acceptable limits. The established model allows predicting the values of the critical frequency of the E-region, taking into account the influence of the short-time variations of the solar activity, related to the rotational period of the Sun. The main application of this model is to determine the lowest usable frequency when calculating a specific radio path over Bulgaria.
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