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VARIABILITY ASSESSMENT OF RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES BASED ON POWER GENERATION RECORDINGS
Abstract
Reliability of renewable energy generation forecast became particularly important since its share denotes a constant growth in the global energy mix and the uncertainty of supply continuity resulting from this rises. Given the numerous geographic and meteorological factors that greatly influence the results of a more general probabilistic determination, an accurate prospect is hardly possible when enlarging the territory or the time span. Moreover, power systems disturbances and load variation, also unpredictable, overlap the inherent intermittency of renewable energy based plants electricity output, further complicating to obtain a satisfactory estimates. This paper aims to assess the variation trend of wind energy, photovoltaic, biomass and hydro energy based on momentary recording of power generation and demand for the last decade in Romania. First, the multiple variables influencing the recorded power generated by each source were identified and coefficient matrices determined by regression, for each day. Forwards, the cumulative probability of achieving a certain renewable energy share in meeting electricity demand for selected days is calculated after fitting the most suitable distribution. Results are presented for the minimum and maximum average electricity demand days, considered to be representatives in terms of system loading. Using the most recent registrations of system's electricity generation and demand, for 2017, the assessments are estimated dependences are evaluated. Available data processing and computational algorithms were developed in Matlab programming environment.
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