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PREDICTION OF STRONG EARTHQUAKES BY PRECEDENTS IN SEISMIC PREHISTORY OF THE REGION
Abstract
The offered method is based on consideration of seismic process as a process of Earth’s crust destruction by seismogenetic breaks of different size and location, connected with each other. Special mathematical methods of handling are used to reveal these connections of earthquakes (EQs) that determine place and time of a preparing strong EQ. We’ll divide EQs (1) by their strength in magnitudes, for example 5.0 and 7.0, into weak, moderate, and strong, and (2) by depth, for example 15 and 40 km, into surfacial, normal and deep-focus ones. Statistical analysis [1] shows that distribution between deep-focus EQs is close to uniform one, and EQs of this type are weak, so we will not cover them because of ineffectiveness of prediction of strong ones. But time stretches between more strong EQs show complicated regularity, based on dichotomic division of the solar cycle. In classification by depth, only normal EQs have such regularity. So we predict normal strong EQs.
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