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BIOCLIMATIC PROJECTIONS FOR GRAPEVINE DEVELOPMENT IN ROMANIA AND REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA ACCORDING TO THE MPI-ESM1.2-HR MODEL
Abstract
Romania and the Republic of Moldova have a long-standing tradition of grape cultivation, one of the agricultural sectors that is highly sensitive to climate change. As the growth and development of grapevines are strongly dependent on the regional bioclimatic dynamics, this study presents projected climatic changes over Romania and the Republic of Moldova under three of the latest climate scenarios. The analysis focuses on ten biometeorological indices relevant to grapevine development (e.g. mean annual air temperature, mean diurnal air temperature range, isothermality, growing season length, precipitation amount within the growing season, mean temperature of the growing season, Climate Moisture Index), extracted from the CHELSA database and evaluated at a fine spatial resolution, for the period 2041-2070. The selected climate change scenarios, combining Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), are: SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP3-RCP7.0, and SSP5-RCP8.5. Projected data were obtained from the MPI-ESM1-2-HR model developed by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology following the HighResMIP protocol. The results indicate that in all three scenarios there is an increasing trend in the number of degree days over ten degrees Celsius, especially at high-elevation areas for the near future (2041-2070). Precipitation amount shows small increases in the western areas and tiny decreases in central and eastern Romania and over the Republic of Moldova. Mean air temperature during the growing season presents slight decreases in low-elevated areas and small increases at higher elevations and over the coastal areas. The Growing Season Length shows slight decreases in the high-elevation areas under SSP1-RCP2.6, while increases are dominant in SSP3-RCP7.0 and SSP5-RCP8.5 across both countries. Considering climate impacts on grapevine development and stress responses, adaptation strategies along with other viticultural measures would enhance the resilience of grape cultivation to regional climatic changes.
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