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CLIMATE CHANGE AND IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE IN ASENOVGRAD MUNICIPALITY, BULGARIA
Abstract
Under climate change conditions, irrigation is a crucial factor for achieving sustainable yields, especially during the hot and dry summers. Irrigation possibilities and sustainability in terms of arable land determine the primary importance for the selected pilot area, as representative of agriculture in the Upper Thracian Lowland. The conditions in the region of Asenovgrad are suitable for cultivating perennial and spring crops, with irrigation water primarily supplied by the following dams: the 40 Izvora, Lenovo, Sushitza, and Mechka, run by the "Irrigation Systems" EAD. These dams are built in the watersheds of the Cherkezitsa and Mechka rivers (tributaries of the Maritza), with a total volume of 20.88 106 m3. The statistical methods used include the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test for detecting monotonically increasing or decreasing trends, along with Sen's non-parametric method for estimating the slope of a linear trend. The model meteorological data reveal statistically significant positive trends in the average and minimum air temperatures, as well as in precipitation amounts for the growing season 1991-2020. These findings are entirely consistent with a trend toward warming and increasing stressors in outdoor crops, both regionally and globally. The trends in water usage and irrigated areas total for the period 2017-2021 are negative. Additionally analyzed are certain summer agrometeorological indices, such as evapotranspiration and climatic water deficit. Given the polices for efficient use of water resources, the pilot study can serve as a model for studying the irrigation practices at a municipal level under changing hydrothermal conditions, taking into account the trends and the possible actions for mitigating the risk of droughts, which is of prime importance for the process of planning. Precision irrigation based on a scientific approach is a prerequisite for saving irrigation water, healthy plant growth in dry areas and optimal yields. The methodology used can be applied for future research periods or provide guidance according to regional climate change scenarios and good irrigation practices.
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