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STRATEGIC SCENARIO PLANNING OF THE AGRARIAN SECTOR DEVELOPMENT
Abstract
The purpose of this article is to present the algorithmization of the scenario planning process, based on cognitive methods of economic and mathematical modeling. The methods are based on the etiological diagnostics of synthesizing economic and non-economic indicators, exponential smoothing of the explanatory factors, and the results of the regression analysis. They will allow constructing multivariate scenarios (realistic, pessimistic, and optimistic) of the agrarian sector of Ukraine's economy. The assessment of such scenarios will provide the identification of the latent risks, indicators of the incentives (disincentives), and objective reasoning of areas development in strategic prospect, considering the variability of the business environment. The authors substantiate that under current conditions the classical methods of management (organizational, administrative, social and psychological) do not provide the proper level for effective strategic managerial decision making. In the cognitive economy, in order to avoid ambivalence of managerial initiatives, the strategic tasks must be set considering economic managerial methods based on the use of information systems (economic and mathematical methods). The researchers found out that implementation of the forecast methods as economic ones transforms a standard managerial approach to the innovation. This will ensure the objective assessment of the current development parameters and the argumentation of strategic tasks based on the consideration of the market mechanisms.
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