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RISK ASSESSMENT OF THE SOCIAL IMPACT ON ARSON CRIMINALITY BY RM/RA CRAMM METHOD
Abstract
The paper deals with the quantitative risk assessment approach to the use of the universal quantitative method RM/RA CRAMM. The method is applied to criminality cases related to arson and other cases of environmental insensitivity influenced by social background. The arson statistics recorded in Slovakia are usually hidden behind other reasons of the fire cause. The hypothesis is that there is a certain impact of the social environment on criminality, including arson behaviour. The quantitative method needs quantitative data for the risk identification and risk analysis input. The social level of a certain community can be simply demonstrated on the education level. Usually, communities with a higher percentage of basic education are those called socially unadapted. The aim of the case study is to give an example of the practical use of the RM/RA CRAMM method also for criminal cases related to arson criminality. Another simple analytic method of correlation analysis shows the level of dependence ? the correlation coefficient of the two variables. The case study demonstrates the use of the step-by-step method to measure the risk of arson in socially disadvantaged communities within Slovakia. The risk assessment includes risk identification, risk analysis and risk evaluation phases according to ISO 31010. The quantitative approach is preferred to get comprehensive quantitative results especially for criminality related to a certain social environment. The probability of environmental crime events including arson is statistically related to the education level. Arson has been chosen instead of common environmental offences because arson is considered a crime according to Slovak law.
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References6
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