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COMPARISON OF NATIONAL, EUROPEAN AND BLACK SEA REGION FLASH FLOOD FORECASTING PRODUCTS FOR THE TERRITORY OF BULGARIA
Abstract
Flash floods occur in small areas and in a short time after an extreme precipitation event - generally less than six hours. The intensity of the precipitation, the location and distribution of the precipitation, the land use and topography, soil type, etc. determine just how quickly Flash Flooding can occur. These types of floods are extremely dangerous and it is very important to pay special attention to their forecasting. Due to the complex nature of flash floods, in addition to the qualification and experience of the hydrologist involved in forecasting this type of extreme event, it is important to analyze and compare the results of different forecasting products. This article presents the analyses and comparison of the results of three different products related to the forecasting of flash floods over the territory of Bulgaria. The forecast products considered are Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) of the Black Sea Middle East Flash Flood Guidance System (BSMEFFGS), ERIC - Numerical weather prediction based flash flood indicator of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) and the flash flood product of the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (NIMH) - Bulgaria for forecasting flash floods in small watersheds based on the Rational Method (RM). Forecast information for several significant events in 2022 on the territory of the country were analyzed.
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References5
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Balabanova, S., Koshinchanov, G., Stoyanova, V., & Yordanova, V. (2019). GEODATABASE FOR OCCURRED FLOODS TO SUPPORT PRELIMINARY FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT. International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference: SGEM, 19(3.1), 225-232.
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FLASH FOOD GUIDANCE file:///C:/Users/NIMH/Downloads/FLASH%20FOOD%20GUIDANCE%20(1).pdf
Flash flood indicators https://www.efas.eu/en/flash-flood-indicators
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