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CLIMATIC CHANGE IN THE STORM OCCURRENCE AND INTENSITY TRENDS
Abstract
This paper considers potential changes in storm occurrence and intensity over the western Black Sea through analysis of long term series of wind and wave conditions simulated with relatively high resolution. It is a result of coupling of atmospheric and wave models and spans period of more than 60 years (1948-2008). On the basis of the established methodology of wave climate clustering, wave events capable of producing a noticeable morphological response are separated from the remaining part of the dataset. Furthermore, storm events are classified by their intensity and a criterion for filtration of weak seas are established. Thus, the dataset is reduced to series of storms of considerable intensity and destructive potential, for which wind and wave conditions are summarized in terms of wind speed magnitude, wave significant height, mean period and direction. In order to be fully described, the means and maxima of these parameters as well as other statistic estimates are calculated for each event. The climatic variability of their occurrence and intensity is analyzed on basis of different criteria such as number of stormy days and mean wave energy per storm season.
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References12
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