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THE USE OF A FUZZY MODEL OF PHOSPHORUS CONCENTRATION DISTRIBUTION IN A STRATIFIED LAKE WATER FOR PREDICTION OF WATER QUALITY.
Abstract
The research object was the D?ugie Lake in Olsztyn (north-eastern Poland) (area 26.8 ha, maximum depth 17.3 m). It is a stratified, bradimictic urban lake - a depth index of 0.3 indicates a deep recess of the lake's bowl in the ground. In the past, the lake was almost completely degraded as a result of the discharge of raw domestic sewage. After applying two methods of restoration (artificial aeration with destratification and the phosphorus inactivation), the quality of lake water was improved. The data of multiannual phosphorus concentration in lake water after completion of restoration treatments were used to build a fuzzy model of phosphorus concentration in particular layers of lake waters. The data used to build the model of phosphorus concentration in lake water was: the oxygen content, thermic systems (in different lacustrine year seasons), the amount of atmospheric precipitation and estimated loads of phosphorus flowing from the lake's basin. Created fuzzy model allows to determine the concentration of phosphorus in individual layers for different seasons of the lake year. This allows the assessment of lake water quality in the context of forecasting the risk of algal blooms. The assessment of this research can be used for quick alert of lake users (tourists, swimmers) from the possibility of exposure to cyanotoxins.
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