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SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT IN SARBISHEH BASALT-ANDESITE MINE, BIRJAND, USING OF MONT CARLO SIMULATION
Abstract
Investment in the mine scope is one of the most risk able fields. In the new management skills, risk management is a ve ry important feature. During of the execution of a mine project, the variation of each effective factor can affect on the execution, production and efficiency, therefore a mining project ma nager must be knowledge about of any effective parameter such as Annual productivity, annual benefit, annual cost and exploitation time, in project The net present value (NPV) is one of the most important methods for economical evalua tion of project. In this method the present worth of incomes and costs are calculated. A projec t with positive NPV is economic. As a case study, the Sarbisheh basalt-andesit mine which is located at the 74 km from southeastern of Birjand and 9 km from east of Sarbisheh is investigated. The access road to mine is Birjand-Nehbandan road. The 1:500 topography maps from area were made and evaluation deposit was done. Then the value of capital investments was calculated. In next step the value of exploitation costs by considering of total production and the scope of other activities were dete rmined. The discounted cash flow (D.C.F) table was accomplished by computing the tax, depreciation, return over and royalty values. The NPV method, among of different methods, is applied for basalt-andesit mine evaluation. As a result the NPV value obtained 6451918946 (RLS). Key words: Simulation- Mont Carlo- Risk anal ysis- Sensitivity analysis- Andesit- Basal
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References6
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