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THE ASSESSMENT OF EXPOSURE TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN SOUTH-EASTERN SERBIA REGIONS
Abstract
Increasing in air temperatures, changes in the precipitation pattern and increased frequency of extreme weather events represent the main characteristics of climate changes in Serbia. Climate changes, according to their characteristics, affect the society, the various sectors of economy and the natural environment. Based on the direct dependence of agricultural production on the climate state, and therefore on climate changes, the agricultural sector represents the most vulnerable sector of economy. In order to define successfully the adaptation strategy, the main prerequisite is to provide as much as possible accurate estimation of the vulnerability of the agricultural sector to climate changes. The analysis of exposure to climate change on the territory of South-eastern Serbia was conducted based on the concept and recommendations of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) on vulnerability assessment in agricultural sector. The exposure was observed and analyzed using the nine variables, which were grouped into two groups (climate variability and extreme weather events). The exposure analysis shows which regions of South-eastern Serbia are most vulnerable to climate changes, and for which regions is necessary a detail analysis of sensitivity and adaptive capacity.
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