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MODELING THE CHANGES IN GLOBAL TEMPERATURE DUE TO POLLUTION

N.I. Didenko, D.F. Skripnuk, O.V. Mirolyubova

Abstract

This article is considering anthropogenic and natural pollution, which leads to a change in global temperature. The article also talks about the Greenhouse effect and global climate change. The average global temperatures can fluctuate within years and even decades, for different natural reasons. The article analyses how the world pollution leads to a change in the global average temperature. The aim is to create a model that will show us the relations between the changes in global average temperature with the pollution of the natural habitat. ADL-model (autoregressive distributed lags model) was chosen as the theoretical model, in which the current row values depend both on the previous values of this row and on the current and previous values of different time rows. Eight different variables were chosen as exogenous variables, which characterize the pollution of the natural habitat and influence the change of the global temperature: Methane emissions (kt of CO2 equivalent); Nitrous oxide emissions (thousand metric tons of CO2 equivalent); Greenhouse Gas Emissions (tonnes of CO2 equivalent); CO2 Emissions from the Consumption and Flaring of Fossil Fuels (tonnes); Waste Generated by Electricity, Gas, Steam and Air Conditioning Supply (tonnes); Waste Generated by Households (tonnes). Primary statistical data on endogenous and exogenous variables was gathered from different countries for period of time between 1998 and 2015. Endogenous and exogenous parameters for global economy based on primary statistical data which were determined as countriesпїЅ compound ratio indexes in year t.

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DOI resolver: doi.org/10.5593/sgem2017/53/s21.070

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