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ASPECTS OF OCCURRENCE, FORECASTING PROBLEMS AND GEOECOLOGICAL CONSEQUENCES OF DUST STORMS OF THE ROSTOV REGION

Е. С. Андреева, Sergey Andreev, Stanislav SHengelaia, Boris Otstavnov, Irina Lipovitskaya

Abstract

The article is devoted to the study of the features of the formation of dust storms as a complex agrometeorological phenomenon that develops with a combination of a number of natural factors, which include heliogeophysical, synoptic-meteorological, physical-geographical, as well as anthropogenic factors. The latter are caused by mistakes in the development of agricultural land and general problems in the development of the agro-industrial sector of the territory's economy. As shown by the analysis of hydrometeorological statistics carried out by the authors, the frequency of dust storms in the XX - XXI centuries has stable values. At the same time, it is important to note that the quality and proper condition of forest shelter belts in southern Russia is very important as the main factor that prevents the intensive dispersal of the upper fertile soil layer and, as a result, reduces the likelihood of dust storms in southern regions of Russia, including in within the Rostov region. Secondary pollution of the surface air layer arising from the development of dust storms causes a number of further geoecological consequences, causing significant environmental damage. In this regard, it is obvious that it is necessary to develop a number of clarifications to the method of forecasting dust storms as a complex agrometeorological unfavorable or dangerous weather phenomenon, which actualizes this study, ensuring its prospects and practical significance. In carrying out the research, the authors relied on a systematic approach, using methods of statistical information processing, the method of T. Bayes and minimax, methods of neuro-modeling, as well as methods adopted in synoptic meteorology, including work with catalogs by G.Ya. Wangenheim - A.A. Girs, calculation of circulation indices by A.L. Katz, calculation of recurrence, intensity of cyclones and anticyclones, study of catalogs of Wolf numbers and values of disturbance of the Earth's magnetosphere.

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DOI resolver: doi.org/10.5593/sgem2021/5.1/s21.116

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