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SCENARIO FORECAST OF BALKASH LAKE LEVEL BASED ON CMIP6 GLOBAL MODELS
Abstract
In the presented scientific work, a scenario forecast for the long-term perspective of water level changes in Lake Balkhash, one of the largest drainless lakes in Central Asia, is carried out. The study takes into account the impact of projected climatic changes based on CMIP6 data and the impact of socio-economic factors, including water management activities. A water balance model was used as the main tool to quantify the role of surface inflow, precipitation and evaporation in shaping the hydrological regime of the reservoir. The results of modelling under scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 for 2030, 2040 and 2050 yy. indicate an expected decrease in surface runoff volumes as a result of the combined effects of climate change and economic activity. At the same time, evaporation is projected to increase against the background of rising air temperature. In the absence of effective mechanisms for transboundary water co-operation and climate adaptation, Lake Balkhash will be faces serious environmental risks - in particular, possible partial shallowing and fragmentation of the reservoir, especially in its eastern part. These results emphasize the need for a systematic and adaptive approach to water resources management in the Balkhash basin, taking into account natural non-stationarity, regional risks and socio-economic instability.
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