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THE COMPONENTS OF WATER BALANCE IN CHANGING CLIMATE IN FUTURE HORIZONS IN SLOVAKIA
Abstract
The aim of this article is the possible impact of climate change on the components of water balance. Climate change has a non-negligible impact on the hydrological cycle and water resources. In this paper, simulated changes in the water balance in the selected river basins due to climate change were estimated using the WetSpa model. Distributed rainfall-runoff model simulations are often used to evaluate the impact of changes on the generation of runoff and water balance. The parameters of the model were estimated using climate data and three digital map layers: a land-use map, soil map and digital elevation model. In this research, the KNMI and MPI regional models with SRES A1B (moderate) emission scenario were used. Outputs from the KNMI and MPI climate scenarios (as input data) were used to estimated future behavior of characteristics of water balance as an actual evapotranspiration and soil moisture. The results showed a slight increase of actual evapotranspiration and decrease of soil moisture in future horizons in comparison with the reference period of 1981-2010. These changes are predominantly due to the increase of air temperature and decline in precipitation total.
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