Scholarly record
DEGREE-DAYS AND AGRO-METEOROLOGICAL INDICES IN PROJECTED FUTURE CLIMATE OVER SOUTHEAST EUROPE
Abstract
The present study analyzes the potential changes of residential heating and cooling degree-days as well as three stakeholder-relevant indices of agro-meteorological change (growing season length, sum of the active and sum of the effective temperatures) for Southeast Europe over near past (1975?2004), near (2021-2050) and far (2070?2099) future periods. All indicators were calculated from the output data of our simulations with the regional climate model RegCM driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis for the near past and by the global circulation model HadGEM2-ES under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 CMIP5 radiative forcing scenarios for the future periods. The validation of the model-based indices against their counterparts, computed from the observational dataset E-OBS, shows that the model reproduces the spatial variability and magnitude of the indices generally well. The study reveals a decrease of the heating degree days and considerable increase of the cooling degree days as well as increase of the agro-meteorological indices practically over the whole domain in the future. The detected changes, which agrees with most recent studies, are direct consequence of the expected general temperature tendencies in the region and intensify with the radiative forcing.
Publication Impact Profile
Publication details
References14
Chervenkov, H., Ivanov, V., Gadzev G., Ganev K., Sensitivity Study of Different RegCM4.4 Model Set-Ups—Recent Results from the TVRegCM Experiment, Cybernetics and Information Technologies Vol. 17, No. 5 17–26 (2017)
Janković, A., Podraščanin, Z., Djurdjevic, V., Future climate change impacts on residential heating and cooling degree days in Serbia IDŐJÁRÁS Quarterly Journal of the Hungarian Meteorological Service Vol. 123, No. 3, July – September, 2019, pp. 351–370
Chervenkov, H., Slavov, K., Ivanov, V., STARDEX and ETCCDI Climate Indices Based on E-OBS and CARPATCLIM; Part One: General Description, in G. Nikolov et al. (Eds.): NMA 2018, LNCS 11189, 360–367, (2019) DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-10692-8 40
Sillmann, J., Röckner, E. Climatic Change (2008) 86: 83. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-007-9308-6
Alexander, L.V., et al.: Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. J. Geophys. Res. 111(D5), (2006) DOI: 10.1029/2005jd006290
Chervenkov, H., Slavov, K. (2019) STARDEX and ETCCDI Climate Indices Based on E-OBS and CARPATCLIM; Part Two: ClimData in Use, in G. Nikolov et al. (Eds.): NMA 2018, LNCS 11189, 368–374, (2019) DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-10692-8 41
Spinoni, J., Vogt, J. and Barbosa, P., European degree‐day climatologies and trends for the period 1951–2011. Int. J. Climatol., 35: 25-36. (2015) DOI: 10.1002/joc.3959
Fallmann, J., Wagner, S., Emeis, S., High resolution climate projections to assess the future vulnerability of European urban areas to climatological extreme events, Theor Appl Climatol 127:667–683 (2017) DOI: 10.1007/s00704-015-1658-9
European Environment Agency, Heating and cooling degree days, (2019) Available from: https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/heating-degree-days-2/assessment
Spinoni, J., Vogt, J.V., Barbosa, P., Dosio, A., McCormick, N., Bigano, A. and Füssel, H.‐M., Changes of heating and cooling degree‐days in Europe from 1981 to 2100. Int. J. Climatol, 38: e191-e208. (2018) DOI: 10.1002/joc.5362
CIBSE, Degree-days: theory and application. Technical Manual 41. Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers: London, UK. ISBN-10: (2006) 1-903287-76-6. http://www.degreedaysforfree.co.uk/pdf/tm41.pdf
Birsan, M.V., Dumitrescu, A., Micu, D.M., Cheval, S.: Changes in annual temperature extremes in the carpathians since AD 1961. Natural Hazards 74(3), 1899–1910 (jun 2014). DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1290-5
G. Gadzhev, I. Georgieva, K. Ganev, V. Ivanov, N. Miloshev, H. Chervenkov, D. Syrakov, Climate appications in a virtual research environment platform, SCPE, Vol 19, No. 2, (2018), 107-118, DOI: 10.12694/scpe.v19i2.1347
Gadzhev, G., Ivanov, V., Valcheva, R., Ganev K., Chervenkov, H., HPC Simulations of the Present and Projected Future Climate of the Balkan Region, High Performance Computing, I. Dimov, S. Fidanova (Eds.), (2020) Studies in Computational Intelligence, Springer (in press)
Citing literature
Number of times cited according to Crossref: 3
View or Download full articleAccess options
SWS access login
Login as SWS Scientific CommitteeLogin as SWS Scientific PartnerLogin as SWS AuthorAuthors and approved SWS contributors will read and export their own linked papers after identity matching by SWS profile, email and SGEM GlobalID.
For librarian assistance: [email protected]
Purchase Instant Access
- Article can be downloaded after successful payment.
- Article may be used according to SWS library access terms.
- Article cannot be redistributed.

