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DEGREE-DAYS AND AGRO-METEOROLOGICAL INDICES IN PROJECTED FUTURE CLIMATE OVER SOUTHEAST EUROPE

Vladimir Ivanov, Hristo Chervenkov, Georgi Gadzhev, Kostadin Ganev

First published: 2020-09-20https://doi.org/10.5593/sgem2020/4.1/s19.047View metrics

Abstract

The present study analyzes the potential changes of residential heating and cooling degree-days as well as three stakeholder-relevant indices of agro-meteorological change (growing season length, sum of the active and sum of the effective temperatures) for Southeast Europe over near past (1975?2004), near (2021-2050) and far (2070?2099) future periods. All indicators were calculated from the output data of our simulations with the regional climate model RegCM driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis for the near past and by the global circulation model HadGEM2-ES under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 CMIP5 radiative forcing scenarios for the future periods. The validation of the model-based indices against their counterparts, computed from the observational dataset E-OBS, shows that the model reproduces the spatial variability and magnitude of the indices generally well. The study reveals a decrease of the heating degree days and considerable increase of the cooling degree days as well as increase of the agro-meteorological indices practically over the whole domain in the future. The detected changes, which agrees with most recent studies, are direct consequence of the expected general temperature tendencies in the region and intensify with the radiative forcing.

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Publication details

Title
DEGREE-DAYS AND AGRO-METEOROLOGICAL INDICES IN PROJECTED FUTURE CLIMATE OVER SOUTHEAST EUROPE
Authors
Vladimir Ivanov, Hristo Chervenkov, Georgi Gadzhev, Kostadin Ganev
Proceedings
SGEM International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference EXPO Proceedings; 20th International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference Proceedings SGEM 2020, Energy and Clean Technologies
Publisher
STEF92 Technology
Year
2020
Pages
373-380
SWS Citekey
Ivanov202019373380
ISSN
1314-2704
ISBN
978-619-7603-09-5
Language
en
Publication type
Conference Paper
Keywords
References14
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Number of times cited according to Crossref: 3

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