Scholarly record
ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE DYNAMICS OF CEREAL CROPS IN CONSTANTA COUNTY (1994 2024)
Abstract
This paper analyzes the impact of climate change on cereal crop yields: wheat, corn, and barley, in Constan?a County over the period 1994 2024, emphasizing the relationship between climatic variables (annual average temperature, total precipitation, and the number of hot days) and agricultural performance. Constan?a, one of Romania s most agroclimatically vulnerable regions, provides a relevant case study for Southeastern Europe. The research applies a quantitative methodology, combining climatic and agricultural time series analysis with data processing techniques using Python. A distinctive methodological feature is the inclusion of extreme heat indicators (days with maximum temperatures above 30 C), which capture thermal stress effects on crop productivity more accurately than annual averages. The results confirm a significant warming trend (R = 0.795) and growing signs of aridification, with maize identified as the most climate-sensitive crop. Beyond the scientific analysis, the findings have direct implications for agricultural planning, supporting crop diversification, improved irrigation infrastructure, and the adoption of drought- and heat-resistant varieties. They also inform the development of adaptive strategies, such as precision farming and soil conservation practices, to mitigate climate risks in Constan?a and comparable semi-arid regions of Southeastern Europe. While the study provides valuable insights, its scope is limited to one county, suggesting the need for future research to extend comparisons with other Romanian regions and to integrate more detailed seasonal and phenological data. Overall, the study contributes both to scientific understanding and to practical decision-making for sustainable agriculture under accelerating climate change.
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References14
National Meteorological Administration (ANM)
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