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SEISMIC RISK FOR THE CITY OF BLAGOEVGRAD
Abstract
The earthquakes are among the most common natural events in Bulgaria. Earthquakes represent a societal challenge as well as globally necessitating practical and operational solution for mitigating risk and reducing losses. This is achievable though earthquake risk assessment. The assessment of seismic risk is based on procedures for integration of seismic hazard and seismic vulnerability of the bearing structures of the building stock. The building stock is divided into three main groups, taking into account the specificity of the building and the available information on the function and occupancy of the buildings. The analyses are made for two seismic excitations defined from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. They correspond to an earthquake hazard with a return period of TR = 475 years and TR = 1000 years, respectively. The detailed quantitative assessment of the seismic risk for the city of Blagoevgrad is performed in three directions - direct damage and destruction in the buildings, social losses (dead and injured people) and economic (financial) losses. Rational urban risk predictions and expected losses from major earthquakes in the future serve the basis and also provide strong reasons for the pro-active risk mitigation activities. The main task of this research is a quantitative evaluation of seismic risk for Blagoevgrad based on an accurate assessment of seismic hazard. This evaluation is of practical importance for the municipal administration, as it allows for the development of a well-grounded prevention program, priority planning of rescue teams, equipment, resources and ability to plan the need for hospital beds and shelter.
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References7
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Methodology for analysis, evaluation and mapping of seismic risk of the Republic of Bulgaria, Ministry of Regional Development and Public Works, Construction and Architecture, Issue no. 5, ISSN 0324-0711, 2018. (in Bulgarian)
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Solakov D., S. Simeonova, P. Raykova, B. Rangelov. Earthquake scenarios for the city of Blagoevgrad. XXth Int. Multidiscip. Sci. GeoConf. Surveying, Geology and Mining, Ecology and Management – SGEM 2020, 1.2, pp 527-534
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Stefanov D., Solakov D., Milkov J., Assessment of the effects of strong earthquakes on the city of Blagoevgrad, Proceedings of 20th International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2020, 1.2, pp 467-474.
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