Scholarly record

SIMULATION OF MULTISTAGE PETROLEUM EXPLORATION RESPECT TO IRANIAN OILFIELD GEOLOGICAL CONDITION

M. Soleimani, R. Ahmadi, B. Jodeiri, A. Khodadadi, N. Lotfi

Abstract

In this article I considered the design of a computer simulation model that approximates the exploration of a petroleum basin when exploration is conducted sequentially and according to geological hypothesis with costs and performance characteristics typical of an exploration firm. These features lead naturally to a model design in which a state of nature is created. The exploration firm initially has no knowledge of this state, only of hypothesis. In this model also, exploration decision are made according to principals of Bayesian decision theory. Once constructed, such a model could be used by a firm in a exploration test of the economic feasibility of exploring the basin for different scenarios of basin endowment, modes of occurrence of the endowment and economic parameters, for example, price, cost of capital and costs. In this model, I obtained response relationships for exploration methods on geologic condition of Iranian oilfield. Here based on the type of the geological anomaly, i.e. surface, subsurface and stratigraphic, each exploration method gives a response. Because most of the oilfields in Iran are in stratigraphic structures, I showed that we would obtain an accurate response from subsurface geology exploration rather than other methods.

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