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ENSURING SUSTAINABILITY OF MODELING AND FORECASTING OF LONG-TERM RIVER RUNOFF BY PARTIAL INFINITE HYDROLOGY METHODS
Abstract
The methodology of sustainable forecasting of runoff and diagnosing bifurcations of its formation, being considered in the article, allows solving fundamentally new hydrological problems (including problems of engineering hydrology) related to the possibility of obtaining long-term estimates of the probabilistic characteristics of long-term river runoff under the conditions of evolutionary changes in the runoff formation factors (climate and anthropogenic activity on catchments). Currently, these long-term estimates can be made either under the assumption of statistical stationarity of hydrometeorological processes using actual series of observations for the previous decades, that is, in fact, by extrapolating ?frozen? probabilistic estimates to the future, or modeling (by calculation) based on equilibrium climatic scenarios under the assumption of statistical sustanaibility of runoff series, according to which parameterization of forecast models of runoff formation is ensured. The results obtained set a new line of research in hydrology, which is related with the opportunity to actually and prognostically diagnose spatial-temporal (geographical-historical) foci of qualitative changes (unsustainability and bifurcations) in the mechanisms of drainage. The article presented the methodology of partially infinite hydrology. The methods and laws of partially infinite hydrology are used to establish (discover) new paths that allow, based on only available hydrometeorological information (obtained from the state standard observation network), known climate scenarios and plans for the socio-economic development of the territory to obtain effective hydrological modeling (forecasting) results processes.
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References7
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