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THE IGNITION SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS BASED ON BAYESIAN STATISTICS APROACH
Abstract
The paperwork is based on the data emerged from a conducted research related to a moisture influence on ignition sensitivity of air-methane gas mixture. For the purpose of this demarche the Bayesian statistics was used to fit a proposed mathematical model. In the first part of the paper it was presented the spark test apparatus used for the experimentation and the results of the experimental data obtained during the tests with moisturized air-methane mixtures. In the second part it was proposed and presented the theoretical model for moisture dependence of the ignition sensitivity. Also, in this part is succinctly presented the used Bayesian statistics approach. In the third part were analyzed the results of the fitting process and performance. On this occasion it was found that moisture affects the ignition sensitivity of explosive air-methane mixture quantified by ignition probability. Thus, it was deduced that ignition sensitivity first increase and then decrease with the moisture quantified by relative humidity.
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