Scholarly record
OPTIMAL ASSESSMENT OF RESERVOIR ACTIVE STORAGE CAPACITY UNDER UNCERTAINTY
Abstract
In Czechia, climate change is already becoming a reality, and its consequences can be seen in the Czech countryside and landscape, but also in form of water shortages in water supply systems. In Hydrology, the most urgent problem is that the values of the long-term mean flows are decreasing in rivers as well as the yield of groundwater sources. One of the climate change adaptation measures is precise the reservoir capacity and reservoir operation policy in an uncertain condition. That means considered uncertainty analysis as one of important part of reservoir yield analysis. The aims of the paper were to find the optimal active storage capacity of reservoirs for the predetermined temporal reliability under condition of uncertainty of measurement and describe how the uncertainty took into account in the presentation of results. The active storage capacity was determined from the historical series of monthly flows that were affected by uncertainties. Also, the uncertainties were applied on the water evaporation from reservoir, the seepage losses of the dam and morphological volume-area curves. Uncertainties of data inputs were created using the Monte Carlo method. The simulation-optimization reservoir model was developed and temporal reliability as reservoir yield performance measures was applied. The grid optimization method was used in model. Result was presented based on statistical characteristic. The case study was applied to the real open water reservoir, in the Dyje River Basin in Czechia. The result will be whether the dam is resistant to the current conditions, or the optimal design of the active storage capacity of reservoir under conditions uncertainties of measurement.
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