Scholarly record

CONSEQUENCES ON PEOPLE AND THE BUILDING STOCK OF A STRONG EARTHQUAKE FOR THE CITY OF VARNA

Dimitar Stefanov, Dimcho Solakov, Jordan Milkov

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to shed light on the question of what the possible consequences will be on people and the building stock of a strong earthquake for the city of Varna. A seismic risk assessment methodology is used, which was approved by the Ministry of Regional Development and Public Works of the Republic of Bulgaria. The seismic impact is determined based on a detailed deterministic study of the seismic hazard. Initially, an assessment of the seismic vulnerability of the building stock is made based on the detailed information for each building from the cadastre. The building stock is divided into three main groups, taking into account the specificity of the building and the available information on the function and occupancy of the buildings. The assessment of the consequences of strong earthquakes is based on procedures for integration of seismic hazard and seismic vulnerability of the bearing structures of the building stock. Based on the collected information for the building stock and the analysis carried out, the assessment of direct damages and destruction is obtained. The distribution of the buildings, respectively by number and by total floor area, at the different damage levels is presented in graphical form. Economic losses are calculated based on the results obtained for damages and destruction in the three main groups of buildings. Social losses expressed as number of dead, number of injured (slightly and moderately injured people) and severely injured requiring hospital treatment are calculated.

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