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LAND COVER CHANGE IMPACT ON THE STREAMFLOW REGIME IN OSAM RIVER WATERSHED
Abstract
Anthropogenic induced changes in the Earth-s surface are commonly addressed as land use/land cover change. Activities such as agriculture, forestry, transport and house building use the land and change its natural state and functions. The impact of land-use change is associated with changes in the infiltration rate of the soil, soil texture and evapotranspiration thus affecting the hydrological response of watersheds. In this paper a study on the influence of land use changes on the hydrological regime of Osam river watershed in Bulgaria is presented. As a first step the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to model the hydrological processes in the study watershed. For representing land use conditions in the watershed the Corine Land Cover 2018 (CLC 2018) dataset was used. SWAT was calibrated and validated using measured daily streamflow data from all five hydrometric stations in the watershed. The model was further applied over the catchment using the same meteorological input time series data and a pre-defined future landuse/landcover change scenario. Esri Land Cover 2050 projected land cover for the year 2050 was used to re-model the hydrological processes in Osam river watershed. The projected 2050 land cover is based on observed change between the 2010 and 2018 European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative Land Cover layers (ESA CCI). A detailed analysis of the land cover classes- distribution of both CLC 2018 and Esri Land Cover 2050 land cover datasets was performed. Modelling results using the future land cover change scenario were compared to the results with CLC2018 land cover data. An assessment of the water balance components changes, changes of the main hydrological processes in the watershed, e.g evapotranspiration and surface run off, was also performed.
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