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PROBABALISTIC MODELING OF CYCLING EXOGENOUS PROCESSES FOR NATURAL HAZARD ASSESSMENT
Abstract
The research deals with cyclic processes. The cyclic processes are those exogenous geomorphological processes which are characterized by the repeating sequence of changes. These processes include landslides, snow-slips, and some others where activation of the process is followed by the stage of its recovery, such as microrelief recovery, vegetation and soil cover recovery. The process occurs under the influence of two groups of factors: local factors independently activating separate sites (the local activation) and a factor acting within the whole area (the heavy activation). Within the areas of the process development (foci) a certain change of the microrelief, soil and vegetation cover takes place due to their restoration between activations. In this case, the time of the last activation determines the stage of soil and vegetation cover transforming as well as the nature unit as a whole, i.e. it determines the characteristics of the nature unit. The analysis shows the general model of the described above process can be regarded as the Markov chain.
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References4
Victorov A.S., Orlov T.V., Trapeznikova O.N. Landslide modeling basing on probability theory of renewal processes, Engineering Geology for Society and Territory, 2015, Volume 2: Landslide Processes, pp.1447-1450
Victorov A.S. Probabilistic model of landslide processes based on Markov chains, International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference Surveying Geology and Mining Ecology Management, SGEM 2015, Vol 2 pp.579-587.
Korolyuk V.S., Portenko N.I., Skorokhod A.V. et al. Spravochnik po teorii veroyatnosti i matematicheskoy statistike. (A handbook on probability theory and mathematical statistics) Moscow, Nauka, 1985, 640 p.
Shannon& Wilson inc. Seattle Landslide study 2000 http://www.seattle.gov/dpd/cs/groups/pan/@pan/documents/web_informational/dpdp02 5 740.pdf
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