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AGRO-CLIMATIC RISKS AND AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION: BELGOROD OBLAST
Abstract
In the article the main results of study in the field of weather and climate risks evalua-tion for the territory of the Belgorod oblast are summarized. The directions of these risks management at the regional level are determined. Against the backdrop of global climate change, the volatility of agricultural and meteor-ological conditions not only continues but also worsens. The observed increase in the frequency of occurrence of hazardous agro-meteorological phenomena in the region is determined by climatic changes. The categories of regional and local agro-climatic risks are put forward to the forefront in the consideration of the problem of food security of the territories. The types of climatic risks in agriculture: risks of crop losses due to lack of agro-climatic resources over the growing period (sum of the active temperatures, precipita-tion, photosynthetic active radiation, etc.); risks of yield loss due to hazardous agro-meteorological phenomena in the vegetation period (overwetting, damping off, asphyx-iation, droughts, frosts, hot dry winds, hailstorm, wind and water erosion of soils, seeds buffing etc.); the risk of loss in connection with the occurrence of diseases and spread of plant pests against the background of the current weather situations in the terms of cli-mate change. The study was based on the data of meteo - and agrometeorological observations of the Belgorod center of Hydrometeorology and environmental monitoring at 6 stations in the region for the period from 1970 to 2016, as well as the data of the Department of agriculture of the Belgorod oblast concerning the yield and croppage in the region. Studies were carried out by using the method of moving averages, as well as probabilistic and statistical analyses. The maximum frequency of occurrence of the dangerous agro-meteorological phenom-ena periods in the region was during 1998-2016 years. Analysis of the average duration of dangerous climatic phenomena for the periods 1971-1980, 1981-1997, 1998 -2016 showed the tendency of increasing the following events: abnormally cold weather, high heat, abnormally hot weather, fire hazard, ground and air frost, soil and atmospheric drought, dry wind. The maximum average annual duration in the last 20 years is typical for soil and atmospheric droughts (29 and 16 days, respectively), extreme fire hazard and dry wind (11 and 7 days). Against the background of changes in average climatic conditions, which lead to fluctu-ations in the yield within 10-20%, the impact of extreme climatic conditions can exceed this figure by 1.5-2.5 times and reach 15-50%. Thus, the conducted analysis showed that the most significant decrease in the yield and croppage of winter wheat is observed in the years of stable droughts. The average yield of winter wheat in the Belgorod oblast in these years was less than the trend by 28-33%. In the years with early spring droughts, the yield of winter wheat in the region decreases averagely by 23-25%.
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