Scholarly record
SPATIO-TEMPORAL TRANSFORMATION OF CLIMATIC INDICATORS IN THE AKTOBE REGION: GIS-BASED MODELLING USING WORLDCLIM AND KAZHYDROMET DATA
Abstract
This study presents a comparative retrospective analysis of the spatio-temporal dynamics of climatic parameters within the territory of Aktobe Region for two periods: 1970–2000 and 2000–2025. The methodological framework of the study is based on geographic information system (GIS) technologies, the WorldClim global raster climate database, and verified observational data from the stationary meteorological network of RSE “Kazhydromet.†The aim of the research is to identify trends in mean annual, maximum, and minimum air temperatures, as well as atmospheric precipitation, and to assess the patterns of their geospatial distribution across the region. In the GIS environment, WorldClim raster layers were clipped according to the administrative boundaries of the region, reclassified, and mapped with consideration of landscape features, including plain, elevated, and ridge-like areas. The results of the analysis indicate pronounced warming and aridification trends in the region over the last quarter century. In particular: Temperature regime: Compared with the baseline period of 1970–2000, the second period shows an increase in the extreme maximum of mean annual temperature from 12.4 °C to 13.5 °C, the absolute maximum temperature from 18.8 °C to 19.9 °C, and the upper limit of minimum temperature from 6.9 °C to 7.6 °C. Moisture regime: The highest annual precipitation value decreased from 770 mm to 722.5 mm, while the lowest value declined from 137 mm to 128.6 mm. The main share of precipitation is characteristic of the northern and higher elevated ridge-like districts, whereas increasing drought indicators were recorded in the southern and central plain zones. Interpolation of the modelling results with local stationary meteorological data confirmed the high regional representativeness and reliability of WorldClim raster datasets. The identified climatic trends indicate direct risks associated with the transformation of the region’s agroclimatic potential, degradation of pasture ecosystems, and increasing scarcity of water resources.
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References4
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