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EVALUATION OF MESO-METEOROLOGICAL MODEL SIMULATIONS OF EXTREME WIND EVENT AT COASTAL REGION
Abstract
Remote sensing measurements of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL) were performed with a monostatic Doppler sodar system during the period August 2008 - October 2016 near the Black Sea coastal town of Ahtopol. These high resolution data (10 m in vertical direction and 10 min in time) were used in the framework of the project REPLICA to obtain a reference extreme wind speed profile following the criteria for "rare" events of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Based on the defined reference profile, cases with extreme winds were identified for the whole period of measurements. The performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was evaluated against the sodar data for several cases of extreme wind speed events. Example of simulations using four different physical parameterization schemes of ABL for the period 17-18 Sep 2016 is discussed in this paper. Taylor diagrams and basic statistical indicators such as correlation coefficient, standard deviation of model error, standard deviation and bias are used for the model evaluation. The results show for all parametrization schemes that the model simulates the wind direction better than the horizontal wind speed. The worst results are obtained for the vertical wind speed component.
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