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ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ASSESSMENT QUANTITATIVE METHODS FOR CRISIS MANAGEMENT
Abstract
The paper deals with the presentation of modern quantitative methods for assessing environmental risks. It evaluates individual methods in terms of their suitability for use in individual phases of the risk assessment process. The qualitative comparison of individual methods and techniques is based on predefined criteria. A multi-criteria decision-making method was used for the comparison of the methods and techniques. Methods of Fault tree analysis, Event tree analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, RM/RA CRAMM methods were analyzed and compered from the crisis management efficiency of use in phase of emergency prevention. The methods compared use mathematical models and statistical analysis to assign numerical values to risks, including steps like identifying hazards, assessing exposure, modeling dose-response relationships, and calculating the probability and consequences of adverse events. The output of the analysis comparing quantitative methods is a clear table showing their suitability for individual phases of risk assessment. This paper employs a structured, multi-tiered methodological framework integrating RM/RA CRAMM, Event Tree Analysis, Fault Tree Analysis, and Monte Carlo Simulation to assess environmental risks with increasing levels of analytical depth. These methods are applied sequentially to align with standard Environmental Risk Assessment stages-screening, scenario analysis, causal analysis, and quantitative uncertainty evaluation. Their combined use enables the transition from semi-quantitative prioritization to fully probabilistic modelling of environmental consequences. The assessed quantitative methods are matched with the key environmental applications and their use in certain situations.
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