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In this paper stochastic model is proposed to estimate the probability of forest fire from anthropogenic load. A point source of anthropogenic load is considered. For example, a rural settlement, a camp, an industrial site, which are located in controlled forest-covered areas. Mathematically, the following model can be formulated. Let?s consider circle with radius in the some set. Then the cumulative distribution function (c.d.f.) of ignition near the neighborhood of the point X0 can be defined. Obvious that all p...