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For the design and safe operation of oil and gas offshore drilling structures on the Arctic shelf, it is necessary to know the regime characteristics (frequency of occurrence, size, drift parameters) of dangerous ice features (icebergs, hummocks, stamukhas, large ice floes). In the paper we describe a method of estimating the frequency of iceberg occurrence, which is based on the implementation of a numerical iceberg drift model, and the subsequent calculation of the conditional probability of icebergs appearing i...