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An explanation is given of the regularities of occurrence of constant constituents in long-term series of river runoff, evaporation, and changes in the total water reserves of catchments, which are based on the detection effect, both in hard-deterministic and in stochastic systems – river basins. With regard to long-term runoff, this conclusion is confirmed by empirical data on the probability distributions of almost all the rivers of the globe. For evaporation and changes in the total water reserves, this conclus...

The methodology of sustainable forecasting of runoff and diagnosing bifurcations of its formation, being considered in the article, allows solving fundamentally new hydrological problems (including problems of engineering hydrology) related to the possibility of obtaining long-term estimates of the probabilistic characteristics of long-term river runoff under the conditions of evolutionary changes in the runoff formation factors (climate and anthropogenic activity on catchments). Currently, these long-term estimat...